Wednesday, February 04, 2009

Sigh.

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East central Florida forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
920 am EST Wednesday Feb 4 2009


Discussion...


..a hard freeze expected across most of east central Florida
tonight...
..dangerously cold wind chills overnight and early Thursday...


Arctic air spilling southward into the state with upstream airmass
very dry on morning soundings. Full mixing by late this morning will
produce gusty winds through the afternoon. Temperatures will remain
only in the 40s across North Lake and Volusia counties and lower to
middle 50s across area.


Forecast remains on track and will evaluate wind and very low temperature
combinations expected tonight. Tonights cold will be aggravated by
the continuation of wind which will produce seldom experienced wind
chill readings for this area.


6 comments:

Alan said...

I hear you. We're predicted to hit sixteen tonight, nineteen for tomorrow night. Time to rethink the way I do all cold sensitive in ground plantings since it would appear I'm about to get a chance to replant them all.

Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.

.....Alan.

Susan said...

16 degrees - Yikes! I thought our 30 was bad. I hope your citrus makes it okay, Alan. I'm ready for spring!

The Conservative Gardener said...

“I am a skeptic…Global warming has become a new religion.” - Nobel Prize Winner for Physics, Ivar Giaever.

“Since I am no longer affiliated with any organization nor receiving any funding, I can speak quite frankly….As a scientist I remain skeptical. “The main basis of the claim that man’s release of greenhouse gases is the cause of the warming is based almost entirely upon climate models. We all know the frailty of models concerning the air-surface system” - Atmospheric Scientist Dr. Joanne Simpson, the first woman in the world to receive a PhD in meteorology, and formerly of NASA, who has authored more than 190 studies and has been called “among the most preeminent scientists of the last 100 years.”

Robert Williams said...

1. The fact that the earth has been warming rapidly, especially over the last 20 years is well documented.

http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2006/2006_Hansen_etal_1.pdf

(I've made it a link, but due to the small size of the window, you will be able to easily read the article only if you copy and paste the address in your browser address bar - unless I'm missing something.)

2. Here are a number of non model based studies that document the evidence for global warming caused by increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

http://www.heatisonline.org/contentserver/objecthandlers/index.cfm?id=3458&method=full .

3. You have presented a couple of individuals that don't accept the evidence that global warming is being driven by increases in greenhouse gasses (esp. carbon dioxide). Actually, there are over 50 scientific societies and academies of science that have endorsed the conclusion that most global warming is caused by human activities (burning fossil fuels and deforestation). This includes all of the national academies of science of the industrial countries. Until recently, only the American Society of Petroleum Geologists rejected these claims. This is not surprising since it is their ox that is in danger of getting gored if we slow down the burning of fossil fuels. Despite this, the American Society of Petroleum Geologists has recently dropped its rejection of global watming caused by human activity and replaced it with an admission that its membership is divided on the issue. With that change in policy, there are no longer any major scientific organizations rejecting global warming casused largely by human activity.

A poll that shows that most (90 percent for warming, 82 percent for caused by human activities) earth scientists accept global warming caused by human activity. An overwhelming 97% of climatologists (the scientists that actually study climate including trends in the past, current trends, and future trends) accepted humans as the major cause of global warming. These are the people with the greated amount of expertise on the global climate.

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/306/5702/1686

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change

Documentation of the entire list and the actual statements made by the groups are provided provided in the link above. I wanted to make it easy for anyone to get some idea of how long the list of scientific organizations supporting that support the science behind gobal warming is, but frankly, I'm tired of typing.

Major scientific organizations that accept global warming caused by human activity:

European Academy of Sciences and Arts

InterAcademy Council

International Council of Academies of Engineering and Technological Sciences

The national science academies of Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Cameroon, Canada, the Caribbean, China, France, Ghana, Germany, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, India, Japan, Kenya, Madagascar, Malaysia, Mexico, Nigeria, New Zealand, Russia, Senegal, South Africa, Sudan, Sweden, Tanzania, Uganda, United Kingdom, United States, Zambia, and Zimbabwe released a statement in 2001.

The science academies of Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States released a statement in 2005.

The national science academies of Brazil, Canada, China,France, Germany, Italy, India, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States released a statement in 2007 which they repeated in 2008.

Network of African Science Academies

Royal Society of New Zealand

American Association for the Advancement of Science

European Science Foundation

National Research Council (US)


Robert

The Conservative Gardener said...

hmmmmm. I wonder where scientific societies and academies of science get their funding from? I don't think they make any products or provide any services of any substance. hmmmmmm. Donations maybe? Grants? hmmmm.

Robert said...

Well, you may wonder where scientists get their funding from, but we KNOW where oil and coal companies make their profits - from people buying and using ever increasing amounts of their products. Trying to reduce the amount of C02 in the atmosphere is definitely going to hurt their profits in the short term, regardless of how much good it does for the rest of us. I don't know why grants and donations to scientific organizations would come only from people that support something that deniers allege is not true. That's a conspiracy theory with no evidence. Even if it were true, there is no better way for a scientist to make his/her reputation than to disprove the common consensus. Showing that global warming is a hoax at this point would be Nobel prize material, but it isn’t happening.

The scientists have done an excellent job of showing the evidence for global warming / climate chaos. The deniers are coming up with conspiracy theories and are not publishing their evidence in the peer reviewed scientific journals. You and I both know that the coal and petroleum companies would be happy to fund research disproving global warming if it were possible. The fact that they can't even keep the
American Association of Petroleum Geologists in line is telling. That group used to say there was no evidence of significant human influence on global warming, now they admit that their members are divided on the degree of human influence on climate change.
See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change#American_Association_of_Petroleum_Geologists. That is at least one group that should be in opposition to human influence on global warming (if funding their careers were their primary concern).

There is no reason to suspect that the world’s major scientific organizations are going to get more funding for telling lies about their findings, especially when those lies could be so easily disproved through research. What do you think is the best evidence against global warming?

Since this is a gardening blog (and I did come here to read about gardening - the global warming discussions surprised me), I'm happy to report that most of my tomato plants have made it through our recent cold weather. We are harvesting Sweet 100 VFs, some pear shaped roma-like tomato (I've forgotten the variety) and are waiting for a bunch of Better Boy tomatoes to ripen. I've purchased seeds for a couple of heirlooms (a Brandywine and a yellow pear) and am looking forward to planting them now for spring. Last year was my first successful tomato harvest, and I'm looking forward to growing heirlooms for the first time.

Robert